“The growth in e-commerce and the 'delivery economy,' which was two to five times faster in 2020 than before the pandemic, is likely to continue after the pandemic.”

Reasoning

McKinsey's 2021 prediction was directional rather than quantitative — it stated that e-commerce and the 'delivery economy' growth (which had been 2–5× faster than pre-pandemic in 2020) was 'likely to continue.' This is a vague, non-falsifiable-in-magnitude claim, hence a low specificity score. On accuracy: the evidence broadly confirms that both e-commerce and the delivery/gig economy have continued to grow post-pandemic, validating the directional claim. Global e-commerce sales rose from ~$4.2T in 2020 to ~$5.7T in 2022, ~$6.5T in 2023, and ~$6.3T in 2024, with a projected CAGR of ~7–8% through 2028. The U.S. delivery/gig economy has also expanded robustly, with on-demand delivery jobs up 15% YoY in 2025, consumer spending on delivery services growing 11% in 2024, and the gig economy market reaching ~$556.7B in 2024. However, calibration is mixed: the pandemic-era hyper-growth rates (e.g., 54% single-quarter U.S. e-commerce growth in Q2 2020) did not persist — growth normalized sharply to low single digits in 2022 before recovering to mid-to-high single digits. The prediction's implicit suggestion of sustained elevated growth rates was only partially borne out; growth continued but at a much more moderate pace than the 2020 surge, and e-commerce's share of retail did not keep accelerating at pandemic speed. The delivery economy fared better, with consistent expansion in gig workers, platform revenues, and consumer adoption of delivery subscriptions. Overall, the directional prediction came true, but the magnitude of sustained acceleration was overstated relative to what actually materialized.

Sources

• Ecommerce accounts for 25% of total retail sales for first time in Q4 2025

  "From Q3 2022 through 2024, the trend of ecommerce growing at twice the rate of total retail sales resumed."

• Global Ecommerce Sales Growth (2022–2028)

  "The global ecommerce growth rate is projected to be 8.4% in 2024, to reach $6.09 trillion."

• E-commerce sales – IBISWorld

  "While the post-pandemic period did not match the blistering pace of 2020, momentum was sustained."

• Gig Economy Growth: On-Demand Delivery Jobs Surge 15% Year-Over-Year

  "The U.S. gig economy continues its rapid expansion in 2025, with on-demand delivery roles up 15% year-over-year."

• 18 Telling Gig Economy Stats in 2025 | NorthOne

  "The gig economy market size reached $556.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $2.15 trillion by 2033."

• 2026 Gig Mobility Report Shows Trends Shaping The Gig Economy

  "The consistently high demand for delivery services persisted after the pandemic."

• E-Commerce Statistics To Know In 2024

  "The global e-commerce sales for 2023 surpassed $6.5 trillion for all the products sold online."